Predicting the Emmys poorly: I shoulda followed my heart...

Predicting the Emmys, like trying to foretell any awards, is always a mixture of rooting for favorites and attempting to divine what the voting body of the Emmy Awards will do. By this measure, I didn’t do very well at all. In retrospect, I should have gone with shows and performers I really, really liked.

If you combine the number predictions I made here in Entertainment Weekly and on, I attempted 24 categories. I correctly predicted nine. But if you look at my EW picks, they were divided into who “will” and who “should” win. Important lesson I learned here: If I had gone with my “should”s (that is, the ones I fervently hoped to win, but didn’t think Emmy voters would go for), my total would have been a much more respectable 14 out of 24.

I mean, under the Best Supporting Actress Comedy category, my “should” entry reads, in its entirety: “Julie Bowen, of course!” What a fool I was not to have picked her, the eventual winner, as my “will.”

In the TV-movie/miniseries category, I originally gave Downton Abbey a higher grade than Mildred Pierce. So why did I go almost all in (yay, Maggie Smith!) on Mildred? Because I thought this witty British costume drama couldn’t stop a big HBO period-piece.

Oh, well, this is the best sort of lesson to learn, I suppose. Lead with your heart, your passion, not your head… that is, unless your head is telling you that your passion for Parks and Recreation is bound to lose when the mighty ensemble of Modern Family is still on a hot streak. And next year, I’ll be rooting for Ed O’Neill again — the guy’s gotta win some time, right?

Twitter: @kentucker

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  • jfms777

    You critics always get the Emmy predictions wrong. Yet
    the Oscar predictions are usually right. Maybe Dave Karger should give a tutorial to you guys on how to predict award winners.

    • james

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    • AK

      Because there is so much more of a game that goes into the Oscar campaign season. Dave Karger can follow the pulse of Hollywood buzz (and the thousand and one pre-Oscar awards shows) and know with great certainty who will probably win. To figure the Emmys out, you really have to know which episodes have been submitted for consideration.

  • …….

    Tryin to save face, huh Tucker? F’ Off. And, also. F’ the Academy. Carell never wins. How sad is that?. (rhetorical Q, of course)

    • uh

      Not sad at all. SC is tedious and extremely unfunny. He and Will Ferrell should find work outside of entertainment.

      • …….

        Who do you like Gervais, perhaps? F’ Off.

      • Melissa in CA

        I agree. Jim Parsons as Sheldon on BB is universes funnier than Carell!

  • Amy

    Glad to see you thought Parks and Recreation should have won too. Why do so few people see just how amazing and consistently funny that show is? But I have to say, love that Julie Bowen and Ty Burrell won. They are so, so good as Phil and Claire Dunphy.

    • Woot

      I wish Parks and Recreation won too (actually I wish Community won… ) Even though I’m not a big Modern Family fan, the acting is great and I was happy to see the Dunphys win.

    • Carly

      Modern Family is the Eagleton to Parks and Recreation’s Pawnee. I was really hoping for an upset!

      • jk

        Good God. It totally is!

  • deedeedragons

    Looks like Carrell & probably Hugh Laurie will join Angela Lansbury, Peter Falk & others.

    • …….

      +1. Bu ll Sh it. Awards.

    • Acaseofgeo

      @deedee….Uhmmmmmmm….If Carrell follows Peter Falk, he’ll end up with FOUR EMMY AWARDS. If he follows Angela, he’d end up with SEVERAL TONY AWARDS. As for Hugh Laurie, I’ve never cared for the whole “House” overracting thing.

  • jk

    Ken: You really thought Julie Bowen was the best? She wasn’t even the best in that category, and I can think of five actresses who weren’t even nominated – Alison Brie, Gillian Jacobs, Christa Miller, Aubrey Plaza, and Busy Phillips (who should have won) – that deserved it more than she is. Modern Family’s second season was pretty unremarkable, especially compared to its first, which I liked a lot. Plus, Julie Bowen is probably the weakest link (no complaints from me about Ty Burrell winning). I wish Jane Lynch or Kristen Wiig would have won, or Jane Krakowski – even a weak season of Jenna in “30 Rock” trumps season 2 Claire Dunphy.

    • Captain

      I like Julie Bowen but I must agree. She’s one of the weakest actresses on the show, I don’t get why she beat Sofia Vergara. The only thing I can think is that the academy feels Sofia is too obvious a choice and wants to reward a more understated performance.

      • Jay

        Disagree. Julie Bowen is fantastic. I think she plays her part really well.

      • zee

        Rubbish! Bowen is nothing short of brilliant.

      • Ana170

        Julie Bowen is far from the weakest on the show. Her character can be hard to take sometimes but she’s not the weakest.

    • Marti W

      Although I really love the people you’ve mentioned, I’ve gotta agree with Ken on this one. To me, Bowen has flawless timing for physical comedy. The writing is terrific, but she’s so funny visually. Especially in season two.

    • Dillian

      Grade A stuff. I\’m uqnuesotinably in your debt.

  • maruader

    Alright Maggie Smith! She totally deserved the Emmy. Congrats to her

  • Rosie

    “DOWNTON ABBEY” is a television show, not a miniseries. How in the hell did it get nominated as Best Miniseries? “MILDRED PIERCE” should have won.

    • JJ

      Because it is a masterpiece theatre mini-series stupid!

      • Squishmar

        That’s having a second “season”. No, it’s now a series. They slipped it in on a technicality.

  • winsomesailor

    The most recent entry in The Bastard Machine (Tim Goodman’s blog) is October 2010. I suggest you remove it from your blogroll.

  • JJ

    Terribly dissapointed this year by some of the winners, Steve Carrell truly deserved to win and Jimmy Fallon hands down. Glee should have won because it is an innovative beautiful show with raw talent that takes your breath away week after week. Jon Hamm also did an awesome job last year on Mad Men. Happy to see Downton Abby win as well as Mad Men. Mad Men rocks!

    • jj

      I am jj too and I think your picks stink. Sheldon totally beats Steve Boring Carell. Glee was erratic from show to show. Mad Men good but not best. Justified overlooked except for Mags. Mildrd Pierce much better than DA. Sorry. This jj wins.

      • Ana170

        As someone who for the most part can’t stand Steve Carell, I have to admit he was absolutely brilliant as Michael Scott and deserved to win at least once. Glee is mediocre at best. Mad Men and Jon Hamm both deserved to win as did Downton Abbey. So you’re both right and wrong.

  • Jay

    I’m just happy FNL got some recognition. So happy for Kyle Chandler.

  • DesMoines

    relish your things in an opposite directio hither and thither it Emmy winners: Fresh Subdivision of an order, Frantic Men, Downton Cloister, Mildred Bore, Justified, and my presage results | Cognizance Tucker's TV | EW

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  • legallyblonde

    NO! Sophia and “Yay” should have won!

    • Oleg

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  • Sharon

    I was so excited that FNL WON so deserved for the wrting and the acting, if Connie had won it would have been the icing on the cake. M. W. gave one of the best performances I have ever seen,

  • The Truth

    Had Ty and Jolie submitted as lead, I think Modern Family would’ve dominated all four acting categories as well as writing, directing, and Series, which would’ve been insane. The Moder Family Awards, indeed. Could still happen next year. 30 Rock is much better though (IMO). Well deserved win for Margulies who should’ve won last year, too, to become the Female Ryan Cranston or Alec Baldwin. I noticed Good Wife only gets nominations in acting categories even though it’s an Outstanding Series in every area. I find it weird that the Best Drama winner won only that award. No directing, no writing, no acting. Friday Night Lights will be remembered as the Most Emmys Drama for 2011 because it won two (acting and writing).

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