What I got wrong, and right, in my Emmy predictions

Never have I been so glad to be wrong… in just a couple of Emmy categories. I’m certainly not going to whine about not predicting such superb surprise nominations as Louie CK, Timothy Olyphant, and Walton Goggins.

Yes, I’m doing my due diligence in following up on my Emmy predictions post yesterday; I owe it to you to own up to my miscalculations… and crow about my perspicacity!

Of the 13 categories I ventured guesses for, I did predict every nominee in three major categories: Best Drama, Best Comedy, and Best Supporting Actress.

In five categories, I calculated correctly five out of six nominations in each: Drama Actress (Mireille Enos bested my Katey Sagal notion), Comedy Actress (surprise Melissa McCarthy over my pick, Patricia Heaton), Comedy Supporting Actor (Jesse Tyler Ferguson made it a sweep for Modern Family actors, over my Neil Patrick Harris guess), Drama Supporting Actress (Michelle Forbes instead of Debra Winger), and Reality Competition (not The Voice; instead, So You Think You Can Dance — hello, Cat Deeley!).

In four categories, I guessed four out of six correctly: Comedy Actor (yay, Louie CK; alas, Joel McHale; welcome Johnny Galecki over my Rob Lowe suggestion), Drama Actor (my Tom Selleck theory was supplanted by Emmy perrennial fave Hugh Laurie; super-hurrah for Timothy Olyphant, instead of my Sean Bean guess), Drama Supporting Actor (Josh Charles and Walton Goggins, two terrific nominations, instead of my Michael Pitt and — sob! — John Noble), and Variety Series (Bill Maher instead of my Letterman, and I picked the wrong Jimmy: Kimmel over Fallon).

Alas, I only had a 50% success rate in the Reality Series category: Antique Roadshow was nominated instead of Pawn Stars (guess I’m too down-market in my pawning), Hoarders got the nod instead of Dirty Jobs (but isn’t it a dirty job cleaning up after a hoarder?), and Undercover Boss was nommed instead of Intervention (some of those employers need an intervention).

So: I think that makes 62 correct predictions out of 78 potential slots. I’m no math wiz, but that’s a good percentage, isn’t it? (Can you tell I’m vamping until one of you tell me what that exact percentage would be?)

Oh, and to my colleagues Lynette Rice and James Hibbard, regarding their post on egregious snubs, with all due respect: Hell-o, where were Community and Parenthood!?

Twitter: @kentucker

For more: Emmy nominations 2011

Ken Tucker’s Emmy predictions

Comments (80 total) Add your comment
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  • Jennifer R

    79.49%. Not too shabby. That would be what, a C?

    • MM

      Eh, round it up to a B-.

    • BLM

      C+ or B-

    • Bette

      Mildred Pierce recieved 21 nominations !!! 21…

    • Fantasm

      Tho still not 100% on ur second try. Fallon over Kimmel. Flip it and reverse it!

      • Mims

        Under the Australian Uni system, that would give you a Distinction… and .51% off a High Distinction. Not too shabby.

        Also, I’m feeling mega-smug right now for calling the Galecki nod.

      • Squishmar

        He said HE picked the wrong Jimmy … Kimmel over Fallon. So he’s correct. Fallon got the nom, not Kimmel. But he forgot about a sixth slot entirely which Conan filled. (Yeah!!!!)

    • Brian

      In my day, 79.49% would give you a B+ at least, but then, back then the questions were much harder, and they didn’t give you the list of answers to choose from!!

  • maddy

    Parenthood, that’s what I’m saying! Lauren Graham, Peter Krause, Craig T. Nelson, and especially Mae Whitman all deserve to be nominated for their outstanding work and range on the show.

    • Lily

      I totally agree with you!! The amazing cast and the show should have been nominated!

    • Stephen


      • Nick

        Nice ad ref!

  • Jomana S.

    You got Kathy Bates right which no one else remotely thought about it. Hats off!!

    • Neeraj

      >Oh, "the big cehese" as my kids like to call it…I hope the boys have a wonderful day and an awesome year! They are so handsome, Jessie!!!!

      • Anahit

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  • negatory

    Modern Family and Glee got the politically correct votes. their quality in season 2 dropped and bombed like a Taylor Hicks cd.

    • Ian

      I never got into Glee, but all the diehard fans I know admitted Season 2 was awful. Which makes these nomination even more of an embarrassment.

      • Kevin

        They wouldn’t be diehard fans then, would they? Glee’s sophomore season was uneven and at times ridiculously surreal, but had some of the best stand alone entries of television of the year with eps like “The Substitute” and “Born This Way.”
        Awful is a dramatic overstatement, especially from a so-called “fan.”

      • Georg

        You can be a fan of a show and admit when it is awful.
        To not allow that opinion is what turns a fan into a fanatic.

    • CC

      The politically correct votes?! Who knew Michelle Bachmann keeps up with the Emmy nominations?

    • Jason

      Did you say “Modern Family got the politically correct votes”? Remind me NEVER to ask your advice about comedy.

      • Anita

        I love it. You guys go. Stop by if you get into the Denver area. We’ll even let you use our whirlpool and shewor. We can get Jill & Laura and the kids and have a party. Good luck and great weather.Love you Dave & Donna

    • Tony

      I couldn’t agree more with you in regard to “Modern Family”; it really got off to a slow start this season and simply wasn’t that funny in large stretches this year.

  • Ian

    Fringe getting overlooked is just a joke. It is widely considered to be one of, if not the, best show on basic cable, is coming off one of the best seasons of television I have personally watched, and words cannot describe how incredible John Noble is as Walter Bishop. This is pathetic.

    • Matt W

      My first thoughts were…Where is Joshua Jackson?….where is John Noble?! This is Lost all over again.

      Also…where the HELL is Sons of Anarchy?

    • Your mom

      John Noble = robbed

    • Amy

      It’s not on basic cable. It’s network TV, which makes its chances of getting nominated even lower.

      • Jairo

        The reason the Go Red mgapcian focuses on women is that our symptoms are not the symptoms we usually associate with a heart´╗┐ attack. We may not recognize we’re having a heart attack just because we’re having a hot-flash , lack of concentration, or a sore neck . . . Those things seem minor, we’re apt to ignore them. Whereas a man knows immediately what’s happening if he experiences numbness on his left side pain in his chest, we women have to be on the lookout for different signals.

    • MWeyer

      Chalk it up to the Emmys’ long-standing bias against sci-fi (see Buffy and Star Trek Next Generation).

    • Tony

      I will not watch the Emmy Awards because it’s obvious they have no idea what they are doing when John Noble isn’t even nominated. He is easily the best actor on television, bar none. His failure to get nominated, year after year, means one of two things things. Either, the voters simply don’t even watch “Fringe”, or, they are so blind that they can’t discern what incredible acting is. I didn’t know who John Noble even was before I started watching “Fringe”, so I don’t have a bias here. But it’s just horrible that this man isn’t getting recognized for his exceptional work.

      • side3

        John Nobile not getting a nom is a crime.

      • Chadwick

        FRINGE is deliberately discriminated against because it pulled-up stakes in the US and went to Canada to film, and cuz none of its’ 3 primary stars are American.

        You can’t expect anyone in New York, SoCal, or any other major TV production region (Dallas, Atlanta, etc.) to vote for something – when that something has taken $50+ Million Dollars out of that industry’s pocket over the past two years.

        If FRINGE was being made in the US and starred more US citizen-actors… then maybe we’d be having a different conversation right now.

        Nice that the genre award (Saturn’s) have a clue.

  • jones

    I agree about Glee, but Modern Family is still a great show.

  • Brando

    Best Drama: Boardwalk Empire
    Best Actor: Steve Buscemi
    Best Actress: Kathy Bates
    Best Supporting Actor: Andrew Braugher
    Best Supporting Actress: Kelly Macdonald
    Best Comedy: Modern Family
    Best Actor: Steve Carrell
    Best Actress: Martha Plimpton
    Best Supporting Actor: Jesse Tyler Ferguson
    Best Supporting Actress: Sofia Vergara

    • bruno

      god, i hope not.

      • Nasreen

        My 30mth old loves this game. A little long to play at his age, but it is digesned for a little older age range. The four decks of cards are digesned to increase literacy skills. If you draw an Alpha Pig card, you match the lower case letter on the card to the upper case letter on the board, Princess Presto cards you find the letter that the picture starts with. The last two sets of cards are a bit further along in development then he is(game is for 3+ by design), but that only means the game has room to grow with him. Wonder Red cards you need to rhyme with the words on the card, and Super Why cards, you replace the silly word with what makes sense. My husband and I assist him a lot if he lands on the last two set of cards. My son does not seem to mind and I love how educational and fun this game is. I love the great way to reinforce learned skills and introduce new ones. The best is he does not mind to wait his turn. This game not only would benefit the preschool crowd, but even K-1 remediation skills for those with delays or lack of prior exposure. I am buying a copy for my classroom for the literacy center.

    • Georg

      I think I just threw up in my mouth…

      • Burak

        Maybe if prostate cencar research got James Franco to shoot a short, funny video about finding out he has prostate cencar, it would get the kind of money it needs.The reason why some cencar´╗┐ research gets more money and more attention than others is due to 1 or two reasons: either A) a celebrity has the disease or cares enough about the disease to alert their fans who then alert their friends and spread the message that way,

  • Amy

    Thank you, Ken Tucker, for calling out your colleagues on their tragic non-mention of Community (and, I suppose, Parenthood, though I don’t watch that show) as egregious snubs.

  • Faris

    Ken, you’re the man. I agreed with your prediction.
    and don’t worry…Haters can hate all day…but you still have one of the best jobs.

    • Arehet

      Anne Hathaway was absolutely woufnrdel hosting SNL this past November, and her brilliant impressions of Judy Garland and Katie Holmes were flawless . Anne is the best young female host that SNL has had in years. She definitely deserved an Emmy nomination ( Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy ) over Tina Fey ( she was mediocre the night she hosted SNL, and it was obvious she didn’t want to be there ), Gwyneth Paltrow, Kristin Chenoweth,and Dot-Marie Jones.P.S. I was overjoyed about the Justified Emmy nominations because they are well-deserved.

  • tnsmoke

    Sometimes I think they should go back to the cable Ace Awards and keep cable shows separate from network shows. Or at least have separate categories for cable and network shows. It’s really not fair for network shows to compete with cable, where there are less restrictions on telling a story etc. Maybe more of our fave would get a nod if this was done.

    • Asha

      Quality storytelling and performances are quality regardless of the restriction of the network that they are on. Claiming that cable shows need their own awards is ridiculous. If network can’t keep up quality wise we shouldn’t dumb down the awards to make them more network friendly. This isn’t “No Show Left Behind” everyone should be expected to produce quality not quantity.

      • Kevin

        although there is something to be said for the fact that network produces twice as much product.

  • Jason

    Go Modern Family and Game of Thrones!

  • Meli

    Hooray for the newbie nominees, but we all know the same people who win every year will win again this year. The Emmys are nothing if not predictable.

  • Rita

    Congratulations….I’m thankful that Courtney Cox, nor the lame Cougar Town, was not nominated. Friends reruns are still on the air all the time, and that boring show ruined tv for me for quite awhile.

  • gemapet

    Not Emmy related:
    Don’t usually watch Jay Leno, but noticed Craig Ferguson was a guest so had to check it out. Thought there would be a comment here about his lap dance, etc. Great appearance!

  • Bibi

    I think it just shows how predictable they are. I love Community which I am watching in reruns since I hate Chevy Chase.

    • Journey

      No question this is the place to get this info, tnhkas y’all.

    • Aganieszka

      I had the opportunity to work with this aniazmg woman all summer. We talked about death after I got news of a friend of mine passing and she told me that you have to live life to it’s fullest because you never know. I remember her making me laugh and saying the show must go on! She touched so many lives and I thank God for letting us borrow one of his angels. my prayers go out to her family who she talked about many times.kym Whitley .School Pride cast

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